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Fix FAST CI estimation via bootstrapping from contiguous blocks#652

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correct-FAST-bootstrap
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Fix FAST CI estimation via bootstrapping from contiguous blocks#652
ConnectedSystems wants to merge 2 commits intomainfrom
correct-FAST-bootstrap

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@ConnectedSystems ConnectedSystems commented Mar 16, 2025

Correct the bootstrapping method applied for FAST analysis by replacing the sampling with replacement approach with a block boostrapping approach which, in my view, better preserves the local frequency structure.

Closes #649 (thanks to @SchnFlo for suggesting the fix).

In #649, two potential methods are proposed to resolve the bug.

The first (method 1) is to first sort the samples, producing results that were reportedly more in line with the Sobol' confidence bounds.
The second (method 2) was to apply the block boostrapping approach.

Ultimately, I decided to go with the block bootstrap (method 2) as I think it aligns more with the FAST analysis method (which is based on frequency analysis).

@ConnectedSystems ConnectedSystems changed the title Fix bootstrapping by sampling from contiguous blocks Fix FAST CI estimation via bootstrapping from contiguous blocks Mar 16, 2025
@ConnectedSystems ConnectedSystems requested a review from tupui March 16, 2025 04:11
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Tests are failing due to an outdated workflow config.

#653 has the necessary changes to resolve the issue so once that's merged in I'll rebase this PR.

The method better preserves local frequency structure - sampling with replacement was too naive an approach.
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Possible wrong method in the Bootstrapping of the eFAST analyzis

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