Audêncio Victor

BSc, PGDip, MPH, MBA, PhD

Audêncio Victor

Researcher • Epidemiologist • RWE • HEOR • HTA

Evidence Synthesis • Data Science & Big Data • Artificial Intelligence • Predictive Models • Machine Learning • Data Analysis (R, Python, Stata)

01. About

I am an epidemiologist, data scientist, economist, and public health nutritionist working with maternal and neonatal health, and machine learning applied to large health datasets. I am currently a Researcher in Health Data Science at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), University of London, where I contribute to a Wellcome Trust–funded project on predictive modelling for stillbirths and neonatal deaths across Sub-Saharan Africa, teach the postgraduate course Statistical Methods in Epidemiology, and supervise MSc dissertations. I am also a Visiting Researcher at PROADI-SUS, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein (São Paulo), conducting methodological research on non-communicable disease surveillance, multimodal health-survey strategies, and predictive modelling using national surveillance data.

I hold a PhD in Public Health – Epidemiology from the University of São Paulo (USP), with a visiting fellowship at LSHTM. I also hold a Master's degree in Epidemiology from the Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), a Bachelor's degree in Nutrition from Lúrio University, and a Postgraduate Diploma in Public Health (Monitoring, Evaluation & Strategic Information, UFBA). I have completed MBAs in Data Science & Analytics (USP-Esalq), Artificial Intelligence & Big Data (ICMC-USP), and Project Management (USP-Esalq), and a specialization in Health Economics & HTA (UNICAMP, ongoing).

Professionally, I worked as a Technical Consultant (Epidemiologist and Data Scientist) at the World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO), supporting Brazil's Ministry of Health with COVID-19 data analysis and policy guidance. At the São Paulo State Health Department I conducted spatial analyses, disease forecasting (meningitis, influenza, COVID-19), and predictive modelling. As Scientific Curator and Data Analyst at Pacto Contra a Fome, I translated complex evidence into actionable insights for national food-security policy. Earlier, I worked as a nutritionist for the Ministry of Health in Mozambique, leading district-level nutrition programmes in Maganja da Costa and contributing to national malnutrition studies with UNICEF and the World Food Programme (WFP).

I am an active member of research groups including LABDAPS (USP), the MARCH Centre (LSHTM), Rede CoVida, and the Epidemiology, Statistics and Applied Mathematics group at UFMS, and I serve as a reviewer for many national and international journals. My research focuses on quantitative methods applied to public health — descriptive, inferential and Bayesian statistics, mathematical modelling, and predictive machine-learning approaches. In daily work I use SPSS, Stata, R and Python, along with Git/GitHub, R Markdown, LaTeX, Quarto, MLflow, REDCap and KoBoToolbox to support reproducible research.

Keywords

Epidemiology Health Data Science Biostatistics Machine Learning Predictive Modelling Public Health Health Inequalities Maternal & Child Health Cardiovascular Epidemiology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Nutrition Epidemiology Big Data
42
Peer-Reviewed Publications
18
Manuscripts Under Review
6
Consultancies
10+
Years in Public Health

02. Professional Experience

Researcher in Health Data Science Jul 2025 – Present
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK
  • Developing predictive models for stillbirths and neonatal deaths using logistic regression, machine learning (XGBoost, random forest), and neural networks
  • Harmonising seven heterogeneous data sources — DHS, EN-INDEPTH, WHOMCS, ALERT, PTBi, PRECISE and NCOPS — into a single analytical dataset spanning sub-Saharan Africa
  • Designing and auditing the eligibility cascade from the raw harmonised records to the final analytic set, with record-level reproducibility and STROBE flow diagrams
  • Designing reproducible data pipelines and validation frameworks (cross-validation, AUC, AIC/BIC)
  • Contributing to the MARCH Centre and Maternal & Newborn Health Group
Visiting Researcher Apr 2026 – Present
PROADI-SUS, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
  • Methodological research on non-communicable disease (NCD) surveillance, population-based surveys, and innovative data-collection approaches
  • Systematic review on multimodal data-collection strategies (SMS, IVR, mobile web, CATI) for telephone health surveys
  • Modelling temporal trends in NCD risk factors using Vigitel data (2006–2024): ARIMA, exponential smoothing, Holt's method, Prophet
  • Reproducible analytical pipelines in R and Python informing public-health policy and BI tools
Epidemiologist in RWE — PAHO/WHO Sep 2023 – Nov 2024
Pan American Health Organization / World Health Organization, Brasília, Brazil
  • Technical consulting to the Ministry of Health on COVID-19 surveillance indicators
  • Advanced data analysis for public-health decision-making and resource allocation
  • Contributed to developing national health policies and guidelines
Epidemiologist / Data Scientist Jul 2024 – Dec 2024
Epidemiological Surveillance Center "Prof. Alexandre Vranjac" / São Paulo State, Brazil
  • Spatial analyses for respiratory diseases; nowcasting and forecasting for meningitis, influenza, COVID-19
  • Developed predictive models for strategic health decision-making
Scientific Curator & Data Analyst Nov 2023 – Feb 2025
Pacto Contra a Fome, São Paulo, Brazil (Remote)
  • Translated scientific complexities into actionable insights for food-security policymaking
  • Led evidence-based policy projects using data-driven approaches
Data Scientist / Researcher 2022 – Present
LABDAPS — Big Data and Predictive Health Analytics Laboratory, USP, Brazil
  • Applied ML algorithms for disease outbreak prediction and health risk assessment
  • Authored scientific articles and supervised undergraduate students
Nutrition Program Manager & Scientific Director 2016 – 2023
Ministry of Health, Mozambique
  • Managed district-level nutrition programmes; coordinated with SMI, HIV, TB departments
  • Led research activities; focal point for the Konzo Disease Mitigation Program
  • Focal Point for Nutrition and Food Security Research (SETSAN) in Zambezia

03. Consultancies

Real-World Evidence Consultant Jun 2025 – Present
Precision Data Engineering & Data Science, São Paulo, Brazil
  • End-to-end RWE studies for global pharmaceutical clients using Brazilian public-health data (DATASUS/SUS)
  • Patient journeys, treatment patterns, and clinical outcomes across rare diseases, autoimmune conditions, and biologic therapies
  • Study protocol design, Data Analysis Plans & Shell Tables, regression and statistical modelling, SAP review, and medical writing
Scientific & Epidemiological Consultant — Influenza Vaccination Impact Mar 2026 – Present
Brazilian Ministry of Health & Pan American Health Organization
  • Nationwide evaluation of the impact of influenza vaccination on hospitalisations and deaths in Brazil
  • Burden-of-disease estimation, vaccine-effectiveness parameters, and epidemiological modelling
  • Assessing alternative vaccination-timing strategies across regions and age groups to inform the PNI
Scientific & Epidemiological Consultant — Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (NMV/r) Nov 2025 – Jan 2026
Brazilian Ministry of Health
  • Nationwide evaluation of early NMV/r treatment and risk reduction for progression to SARS within 28 days
  • Target trial emulation and DAG-based causal inference with linked SUS databases
Scientific & Data Science Consultant — TQT Project Sep 2023 – Apr 2024
Primary Health Care COVID-19 Response Project, Salvador (BA) & Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil
  • Multisite intervention on testing, e-health and telemonitoring in socioeconomically vulnerable neighbourhoods
  • Led epidemiological data analysis, data-quality assessment, dashboards, and reporting
Technical Consultant in Health (Epidemiologist / Data Scientist) Sep 2024 – Feb 2025
PAHO/WHO, Brasília, Brazil
  • Technical consulting to the Ministry of Health on COVID-19 surveillance indicators and epidemiological analyses
  • Technical notes, weekly situation reports, and national monitoring dashboards
Technical Health Consultant (Epidemiologist / Data Scientist) Jul 2024 – Dec 2024
Epidemiological Surveillance Center "Prof. Alexandre Vranjac" / São Paulo State, Brazil
  • Spatial epidemiology, nowcasting/forecasting, and predictive modelling for respiratory diseases
  • Scientific publication and open-source implementation (machine learning for meningitis surveillance)

04. Education

Current
Postdoctoral Researcher in Health Data Science
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK
2025 – Present
Predictive Modelling of Stillbirths and Neonatal Deaths Using Multi-Country Cohorts
Supervisors: Eric Ohuma and Joe Akuze
Completed
Ph.D. in Public Health – Epidemiology
University of São Paulo (USP), Brazil
2022 – 2025
Gestational weight gain and its effects on fetal growth, neonatal outcomes, and maternal mental health: Integration of Machine Learning and Generalized Estimating Equations in two Brazilian cohorts
Visiting fellowship at LSHTM (Advisor: Eric Ohuma) | Advisor: Patrícia H. C. Rondó | Co-advisor: Alexandre D. P. Chiavegatto Filho | FAPESP Fellow
Completed
Master's in Public Health – Epidemiology
Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Brazil
2020 – 2021
Influence of Food Environments on Premature Cardiovascular Mortality in Brazil
Advisor: Rita de Cássia Ribeiro Silva | CAPES Fellow
Completed
MBA in Data Science & Analytics
University of São Paulo (USP-Esalq), Brazil
2022 – 2024
Development of a predictive model for low birth weight using machine learning algorithms
Advisor: Francielly Almeida
Completed
MBA in Artificial Intelligence & Big Data
ICMC – University of São Paulo, Brazil
2024 – 2025
Machine learning models for fetal weight estimation based on ultrasound biometry
Advisor: Ricardo Cerri
Completed
MBA in Project Management
University of São Paulo (USP-Esalq), Brazil
2024 – 2026
Application of project management methodologies in longitudinal epidemiological research: a proposed governance framework
Advisor: Fabiana Da Silva Podeleski
In Progress
Specialization in Health Economics & Management (HTA focus)
University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Brazil
2026 – 2027
Health Technology Assessment of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (Paxlovid) for severe COVID-19: evidence for SUS incorporation
Advisor: Augusto Cesar Sousa Raimundo
Completed
PGDip in Public Health (Monitoring, Evaluation & Strategic Information)
Federal University of Bahia (UFBA-ISC), Brazil
2022 – 2023
Ethics and justice in the implementation of big data algorithms in healthcare: focus on AI
Advisor: Adriana Galdino Batista Pereira
In Progress
Bachelor's in Economics
Catholic University of Brasília (UCB/DF), Brazil
2023 – 2027
Impact of cash-transfer programmes on poverty reduction and its externalities: the case of Bolsa Família
Advisor: Mateus Silva de Paiva
Completed
Bachelor's in Human Nutrition
Lúrio University, Mozambique (Exchange at Federal University of Viçosa, Brazil)
2012 – 2015
Socioeconomic Profile and Lifestyle in Patients with Type II Diabetes Mellitus Treated at the Central Hospital
Advisor: David Comala | CAPES/AULP Fellow

05. Grants & Fellowships

Doctoral Fellowship — FAPESP
University of São Paulo, Brazil
Mar 2024 – Jan 2025
The Influence of Gestational Weight Gain on Fetal Growth and Neonatal Outcomes: Araraquara Cohort Study
Grant 2023/07936-3 · R$ 120,000 · Advisor: Patrícia H. C. Rondó
Research Internship Abroad Fellowship — BEPE-FAPESP
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK
Jan 2025 – Nov 2025
Research on Gestational Weight Gain Using Machine Learning Approaches
Grant 2024/18309-2 · £22,800 · Supervisor: Eric Ohuma
CNPq Grant — National Research Council of Brazil
USP · UNIFESP · Imperial College London
Jan 2025 – Dec 2026
GAS-Brazil Study: Algorithmic Generalization in Health Across the Five Regions
Total budget R$ 275,389.70
CNPq Collaboration with CIDACS/FIOCRUZ
UFBA/CIDACS/FIOCRUZ & LSHTM
2025 – 2027
Influence of Air Temperature and Heat Waves on Nutritional Status and Child Feeding Practices in Brazil
Total budget R$ 509,480.00
CAPES Master's Scholarship
Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Brazil
2019 – 2021
Influence of Food Environments on Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in Brazil
Total budget R$ 36,000 · Advisor: Rita de Cássia Ribeiro Silva

06. Teaching & Supervision

Instructor (Post-Graduate) — HNT-5707, Methods for the Assessment of Nutritional Status of Populations
University of São Paulo, Brazil
  • Co-taught with Prof. Patrícia H. C. Rondó and Prof. Wolney Lisboa Conde (weekly 4-hour sessions)
  • Lectures and practicals on anthropometry, biomarkers, survey methods, and R-based epidemiological analysis
Instructor — Epidemiological Data Analysis in R
University of São Paulo, Brazil
  • Hands-on sessions on data cleaning, visualisation, regression modelling, and reproducible workflows (R Markdown, Git)
Statistical Methods in Epidemiology (SME)
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Advanced training in statistical methods for epidemiology, applied in teaching and practical sessions
Undergraduate Supervision
Lúrio University, Mozambique
  • Titina Da Deolinda Mirrione — Food consumption and nutritional status of children in Muatala (2017)
  • Quinho Zaona Muxirima — Hygiene-sanitary conditions in take-away food establishments in Nampula (2016)
  • Geraldo Bartolomeu Mateus — Nutritional status and eating habits in adolescents in Nampula (2016)

07. Publications

2026
The World Health Organization Gestational Weight Gain References: construction of the centile curves
The Lancet
Submitted (2026)
2026
Machine Learning Applications for Preterm Birth Prediction: A Systematic Review
npj Digital Medicine (Nature Portfolio)
Submitted (26 Jun 2026)
2026
Machine learning models for predicting loss to follow-up among people living with HIV in Maputo, Mozambique
Journal of the International AIDS Society
Submitted (2026)
2026
Predictive models for stillbirth and neonatal death: a global scoping review of model performance, validation, transportability and implications for sub-Saharan Africa
BMC Public Health
Submitted
2026
Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models and Clinical Nomograms for Predicting Overall and Breast Cancer-Specific Survival and Patient Risk Stratification
BMC Cancer
Under Review
2026
Association between Serum Vitamin D Levels and Gestational Weight Gain: Analysis of the Araraquara Cohort Study
BJOG
Under Review
2026
Maternal mortality among international and internal migrants in Brazil: A nationwide data linkage study (2011–2018)
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health
Submitted
2025
Social Vulnerability and Tuberculosis in Brazil During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Nationwide Ecological Analysis
Scientific Reports
Accepted (30 Apr 2026)
2025
Deep Learning–Based Classification of COVID-19 on Chest X-Ray Imaging: A Systematic Review
BMC Medical Imaging
Under Review (May 2025)
2025
Inequalities in vaccination coverage among children aged 12–23 months in ten sub-Saharan African countries: Insights from DHS (2017–2022)
BMC Public Health
Submitted
2025
Machine Learning–Based Survival Modelling and Risk Assessment of Under-Five Mortality in Mozambique
npj Digital Medicine (Nature Portfolio)
Submitted (23 Dec 2025)
2025
Prevalence and Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
BMC (Systematic Review)
Revision
2025
Relationship between maternal and umbilical cord vitamin D concentrations and neonatal size: The Araraquara Cohort Study
British Journal of Nutrition
Submitted
2025
Lifetime cervical cancer screening in Sub-Saharan Africa after the WHO's 2020 elimination initiative: An analysis of DHS data
BMJ Open
Revision in progress
2025
Ethics and fairness in the implementation of machine learning algorithms in healthcare: An integrative systematic review
Ethics and Information Technology
Revisions requested (19 May 2025)
2025
Longitudinal association between gestational weight gain and arterial elasticity during pregnancy: Evidence from the Araraquara Cohort Study in Brazil
Under Review
2025
Prevalence and predictors of anaemia in children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis
BMC Public Health
Under peer review
2025
Immediate causes of death among chronic treatable diseases in Brazil between 2013 and 2023
Under peer review

08. Editorial, Peer Review & Recognition

Editorial Board

Epidemiology International Journal (EIJ) — 2022–Present

Journal Reviewer

American Journal of Preventive Medicine PLOS ONE BMJ Open BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth BMC Gastroenterology BMC Infectious Diseases Maternal & Child Nutrition PeerJ Journal of Public Health São Paulo Medical Journal Ciência & Saúde Coletiva JMIR Medical Informatics Annals of Medicine Digital Health Communications Medicine Discover Public Health Biostatistics & Epidemiology Health Science Reports Women's Health Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition J. of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde & others

Awards

Best Employee of the Maganja District — 2019 (Government of Maganja, Zambezia, Mozambique)

09. Skills & Tools

Programming & Data

R Python Stata SPSS SQL QGIS Git/GitHub R Markdown Quarto LaTeX REDCap KoBoToolbox

Machine Learning & AI

Random Forest XGBoost Neural Networks Deep Learning Ensemble Methods MLflow scikit-learn

Statistics & Epidemiology

Bayesian Statistics Logistic Regression Survival Analysis SEM GEE Spatial Analysis Time Series (ARIMA, Prophet) Meta-Analysis Causal Inference

Languages

Portuguese (Native) English (Proficient) Spanish (Basic) French (Basic)

Research Methods

Cohort Studies Systematic Review Nowcasting Forecasting DAG-based Inference Target Trial Emulation

Affiliations

MARCH Centre (LSHTM) LABDAPS (USP) Rede CoVida UFMS Research Group

10. Get In Touch

I am always open to discussing research collaborations, consulting opportunities, and data science projects in public health. Feel free to reach out. References available upon request.